Session 5.2.1

Models of Legal Reasoning about Evidence (Henry Prakken)

Day, 20 July, session 5.2.1, first afternoon session: 14h-15h20.

NB: This session is now on inference to the best explanation (see session 4.2.2).

Themes introduced in this session:

  1. Three models: argumentation-based, story-based and Bayesian probabilistic.
  2. Brief introduction to probability theory and Subjective Bayesianism
  3. Some statistical fallacies in reasoning about evidence
  4. Comparing the three models


  • Slides (link)


  • Tribe, Trial by Mathematics (link)
  • Lempert, Modeling Relevance (link)
  • Tillers,Making (Inverted) Bayesian Thinking More Intuitive (link)


  • People v. Collins (link)

Optional readings:

  • Tillers, Trial by mathematics – reconsidered (link)
  • Tillers, Webs of Things in the Mind: A New Science of Evidence (link)
  • Tillers, Are There Universal Principles or Forms of Inference? (link)
  • Possible flight from the police in Washington Heights (link)

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